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Gail Tverberg is a retired US actuary interested in energy economics and relationships between energy, economics and finite world issues – fossil fuel depletion (oil, gas, coal), water shortages, and global warming. She combines physics and economics to explain that when they are low, oil prices show a lack of growth or even economic recession rather than a good economic health.
In 1970, Gail Tverberg started working for the CNA insurance company as an actuarial trainee. This position gave her the opportunity to understand how inflation was about to affect the reserves set by the insurance company's adjusters, which had never been considered before.
She then joined a smaller insurance company, where she uncovered the consequences on an insurance company of the rise in oil prices recorded in 1973-1974 on the one hand, and of high-volatility interest rates on the other hand. After the insurance company declared bankruptcy, Gail Tverberg joined the CNA group again and realized it faces the very same problems.
Gail Tverberg then became an actuary-consultant: she was commissioned for expertise or to give answers to unusual questions of insurance companies using ad hoc predictive models. She was also regularly asked to model the behavior that should be expected of companies being created, which face various scenarios in the future. She especially worked on "long tail" activities, where claims arrive and are paid long after the damage has occurred.
In 2005, Gail Tverberg started facing the oil limit issue and its possible consequences. One of the first sources she used to understand and examine the subject was Jeremy Leggett's book Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe. Leggett's point of view is the traditional “peak oil” point of view, which is close, though not quite identical, to that which would be developed by Gail Tverberg from 2010.
In March 2007, she retired early to work full time on the oil subject. After reading some of her articles, editors of The Oil Drum group invited Tverberg to write articles for them, under the alias “Gail The Actuary”, and then become publisher. This experience brought her into contact with many people working in the field of energy and/or interested in the subject of limited oil supply. In an article written at the beginning of 2008, she announced the financial crisis to come.
Gail Tverberg then wrote or co-authored several articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals on the strong relationship between energy and economics or financial crises. She is also involved in writing scientific books.
- Gail Tverberg's Gravatar profile.
- Tverberg, Gail (30 January 2018). "How the Peak Oil story could be "close," but not quite right". Retrieved 1 February 2019.
- Tverberg, Gail (27 October 2016). "How researchers could miss the real energy story". Retrieved 27 January 2019.
- Tverberg, Gail (6 May 2013). "Reaching limits in a finite world". Retrieved 27 January 2019.
- Leggett, Jeremy (1 November 2005). Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe (PDF). Random House. p. 256. ISBN 978-1-4000-6527-1..
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- Tverberg, Gail (9 January 2008). "Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008". The Oil Drum. Retrieved 27 January 2019.
- Tverberg, Gail E. (January 2012). "Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis". Energy. 37 (1): 27–34. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.049.
- Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Lianyong; Tverberg, Gail E. (June 2013). "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth". Energy Policy. 57: 542–551. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.034.
- Reddy, Sudhakara (éd.); Ulgiati, Sergio (éd.) (2013). Energy Security and Development - The Changing Global Context (PDF). Cambridge Scholars Publishing. Retrieved 27 January 2019. Lay summary.
- "The Next Financial Crisis Is Not Far Away". 26 June 2017.
- "How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others". 8 May 2018.
- "The problem of properly evaluating intermittent renewables – BioPhysical Economics" (PDF). 20 June 2017.
- Space Solar Power Institute web site.