for the House of Commons
|Preserved county||South Glamorgan|
|Population||88,114 (2011 census)|
|Electorate||67,194 (December 2010)|
|Member of Parliament||Anna McMorrin (Labour)|
|Number of members||One|
|Created from||Cardiff Central|
|Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament||South Wales Central|
The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 8% of the vote since the 14.3% majority won in that year. The seat has changed political allegiance twice since that year.
This seat is the residential quarter of Wales' capital, over half of northern Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing, with a higher number of a middle class population than other sections. Historically it has mainly elected Conservative MPs, but with new housing development Welsh Labour has overturned the nominal majority more recently, turning the seat into a national target swing-constituency. By 2004, the Conservatives held a majority of councillors within the district (13, against five Liberal Democrats, three independents and no Labour), but in the following 2005 general election Welsh Labour's Julie Morgan retained the seat but with a reduced majority.
The Tories are hopeful of winning the seat, having topped the Euro poll not just here but in Wales as a whole. They have 13 councillors in this constituency as against Labour's none and the Lib Dems' five – even though in Cardiff as a whole, the Lib Dems control the city council. Labour hopes depend on stressing the independence and hard work of the local MP – Julie (wife of Rhodri) Morgan – and persuading those Lib Dems not to switch to the Tories.
In 2015, Labour attempted to take the seat back but new candidate, Craig Williams, took it with a surprising majority of 2,137. Many had expected it to be very close run again. Labour retook the seat in 2017 on a 6.1% swing, producing a majority of 4,174; this was the first time in the seat's history it had voted for a Labour candidate in an election they did not win and the first time it elected an MP who is not a member of the largest party in the House of Commons since October 1974.
1950–1974: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Gabalfa, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.
1974–1983: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.
2010–present: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau and Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.
Cardiff city centre was in this constituency from its creation in 1950 until 1983, since when it has been in Cardiff Central.
Members of Parliament
Elections in the 1950s
|Liberal||Douglas Arthur Jones||6,017||11.8||N/A|
|Conservative win (new seat)|
|Labour Co-op||John Evans||22,600||43.4||+2.1|
|Labour||George S. Viner||18,054||36.3||-4.4|
|Plaid Cymru||Emrys Roberts||2,553||5.1||N/A|
|Independent||Stanley G. Worth||408||0.8||N/A|
Elections in the 1960s
|Labour||John A. Reynolds||18,215||37.2||+0.9|
|Liberal||Denis G. Rees||7,806||16.0||N/A|
|Plaid Cymru||Emrys Roberts||1,058||2.2||-2.9|
|Labour gain from Conservative||Swing|
Elections in the 1970s
|Liberal||Howard M. O'Brien||2,701||5.8||N/A|
|Plaid Cymru||Brian Morgan Edwards||1,927||4.1||N/A|
|Conservative gain from Labour||Swing|
|Liberal||T A D Thomas||7,139||20.9||+15.1|
|Plaid Cymru||P Richards||1,586||4.6||+0.5|
|Plaid Cymru||P Richards||1,464||4.6||±0.0|
|Labour||M D Petrou||13,133||36.2||+0.5|
|Plaid Cymru||O J Thomas||1,081||3.0||-1.6|
Elections in the 1980s
|Plaid Cymru||Dafydd J. L. Huws||974||2.4||-0.6|
|Plaid Cymru||Eluned Bush||692||1.5||−0.9|
Elections in the 1990s
|Liberal Democrats||Eve Warlow||6,487||13.6||−12.9|
|Plaid Cymru||Eluned Bush||916||1.9||+0.4|
|Natural Law||David Palmer||86||0.2||N/A|
|Liberal Democrats||Robyn Rowland||5,294||10.9||−2.7|
|Plaid Cymru||Colin Palfrey||1,201||2.5||+0.6|
|Referendum||Edward J. Litchfield||1,199||2.5||N/A|
|Labour gain from Conservative||Swing||-11.5|
Elections in the 2000s
|Liberal Democrats||John Dixon||6,631||15.3||+4.4|
|Plaid Cymru||Sion Jobbins||2,471||5.7||+3.2|
|Liberal Democrats||John Dixon||8,483||18.7||+3.4|
|Plaid Cymru||John Rowlands||1,936||4.3||−1.4|
|Forward Wales||Alison Hobbs||138||0.3||N/A|
|Rainbow Dream Ticket||Catherine Taylor-Dawson||1||0.0||N/A|
Elections in the 2010s
|Liberal Democrats||John Dixon||8,724||18.3||−0.4|
|Plaid Cymru||Llywelyn Rhys||1,588||3.3||−0.9|
|Green||Christopher von Ruhland||362||0.8||N/A|
|Conservative gain from Labour||Swing||+1.5|
|UKIP||Ethan R Wilkinson||3,953||7.7||+5.3|
|Plaid Cymru||Elin Jones||2,301||4.5||+1.2|
|Liberal Democrats||Elizabeth Clark||1,953||3.8||−14.5|
|Alter Change||Shaun Jenkins||78||0.2||N/A|
Of the 80 rejected ballots:
- 64 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.
- 14 voted for more than one candidate.
- 2 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.
|Plaid Cymru||Steffan Webb||1,738||3.3||−1.2|
|Liberal Democrats||Matt Hemsley||1,714||3.3||−0.5|
|Labour gain from Conservative||Swing||+6.1|
Of the 98 rejected ballots:
- 77 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.
- 21 voted for more than one candidate.
|Liberal Democrats||Rhys Taylor||3,580||6.8||+3.5|
|Plaid Cymru||Steffan Webb||1,606||3.0||−0.3|
|Brexit Party||Chris Butler||1,311||2.5||N/A|
Of the 111 rejected ballots:
- 86 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.
- 22 voted for more than one candidate.
- 3 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.
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